This is the companion website to David Sumpter’s book The Ten Equations that Rule The World.

In these pages, I go deep in to the maths and programming used in the book. I show step by step how to find edges over bookmakers; the logic of Bayesian reasoning; the inner workings of the algorithms used by Google, Facebook and Youtube work; how mathematicians model the financial world; and many other mathematical secrets.

This is currently work in progress. Chapter 1 on The Betting Equation is complete. Stay tuned over Winter 2022 to Spring 2023 as I add more content.

To get the most out of this site please read the book.

Contents

The Betting Equation:

• Introduction
• Odds and probabilities
• Fitting the model
• Predictions World Cup 2022

The Judgement Equation:

• Bayes Rule